User blog:Glflegolas/The Climate of Middle-Earth

Have you ever wondered what the climate of Middle-Earth would be like? Well, I have done some research on the Internet, and it turns out that researchers at the University of Bristol were also curious. So, they loaded the world of Middle-Earth (complete with its topography and bathymetry) and let it run for the equivalent of ~70 years on the supercomputer. Here's the results they came out with:

Temperature
As you can see from this temperature map, the desert of Near Harad is expected to have an average temperature of about 30 degrees centigrade, and Forodwaith is expected to be very cold (even with no influence of Melkor's magic). The Shire would have an average temperature of about 6.7 degrees Celsius, although certain areas of the Shire might be colder/warmer than others (for example the North Downs would be a lot colder than the rest of the Shire).

As you travel east of the Misty Mountains, you get into a much more continental climate. Summers are still pretty warm, but winters are a lot colder, this makes the average temperature of areas such as Mirkwood a lot lower than, for example, Eriador.

Precipitation
Looking at this map here gives results that are very similar to what you'd expect; coastal areas and the western slopes of mountains (especially the Misty Mountains) are the wettest areas, and areas to the east of those mountains are relatively dry. Surprisingly, Gondor has high annual rainfall despite its high temperature. However, to properly understand the average temperatures and precipitation, we also need to know the prevailing wind direction:

Windspeed and direction
This map gives the prevailing windspeed and direction at the 500 mbar level (which is at an altitude of about 1500 meters). Tolkien was absolutely correct when he said that the Elves would have been able to sail from Mithlond to the Undying Lands -- the prevailing wind direction in the Gulf of Lune would be an easterly. The same would hold true for most areas west of the Misty Mountains and north of the White Mountains (the above reason is also why Lindon would be relatively cool in winter, despite being close to the warm ocean). However, once you go down towards Gondor, the prevailing wind switches to a powerful sou'wester. The direction that the winds blow also strongly suggests that Lindon and western Eriador would be very stormy in winter, and that a powerful area of low pressure would tend to develop just west of Lindon (similar to what forms near Alaska in the winter). Conversely, a strong area of continental high pressure would form over Mirkwood. The wind direction over Minas Tirith, however, comes from the south and east, therefore Sauron could have sent dark clouds from Mordor in that direction.

Vegetation
Here's where the weather science really becomes interesting, as this map describes what kind of vegetation one would expect to find in Middle-Earth. Most of the trees would be broadleaf trees, however, large areas of Enedwaith and Minhiriath would have mostly conifers. Mordor would be mostly shrubland, even with no dark clouds from Mount Doom.

How could this be useful?
Maybe, this climatological and biological data could be useful to make the world of Middle-Earth more authentic, provided, of course, that it doesn't interfere with the lore of the books.

These models do not take magic and great evil powers into consideration, so they may not be 100% accurate, but they should be interesting and give you an idea about how the world of Middle-Earth might have looked.

For comparison, here's Karen Wynn Forstad's map of the climatological zones of Middle-Earth from her atlas:



On the whole, Karen's and Tolkien's climate descriptions closely match what the computer models would predict.

Glflegolas (admin) Send a Messenger 15:52, February 5, 2015 (UTC)