User blog:Glflegolas/The Nightmare Before (On) Christmas -- Storm Edition

Hello, now I'm sure some of you are wondering why I haven't written a region spotlight so far this holiday, or why I haven't responded to notifications for this time, after all, I never said I was going on vacation. Well, in a nutshell, this happened; I was hit by a major windstorm, lost my power, and spent most of the next day cleaning up. If you want to know the details, read below.

Now I am aware that this is not the usual type of content you see on this wiki, but this story is exceptional enough I feel that it deserves to be seen by others.

The Nightmare Before on Christmas – The Dec 25th, 12017 Windstorm

The first indications that a significant weather system might be on its way for Christmas day were on Tropicaltidbits.com. Under the 384 hour GFS forecast model, it showed a very high temperature – on the order of 14oC for Christmas Eve, but also hinted at the potential for a somewhat potent weather system to strike on Christmas Day.

Figure 1. What Mill Cove (outside my house) looks like on a calm day.

Now, I did give this some thought, but not too much. After all, it was 384 hours off – a very long time for computer models to be accurate, and a lot might easily change in that time.

As time got closer and closer to Christmas, I kept on looking at the GFS forecast model. It kept on indicating the high temperatures around Christmas Eve, and still kept hinting at a weather system developing Christmas Day. The Christmas Eve system would be quite rainy, and this next system would produce some rain, but its most impressive indication was its low barometric pressure, around 973 mbar. That’s an indication of a fairly powerful nor’easter, and is roughly the barometric pressure of a category 2 hurricane.

Meanwhile, The Weather Network gave its Christmas day forecast, and it also indicated high temperatures and rain Christmas Eve, but suggested that there would be a fairly intense snowfall Christmas Day as late as December 20th. The GFS refused to budge from its previous predictions; double-digits and heavy rain Christmas Eve, and a bit of snow turning to rain Christmas Day.

The days leading up to Christmas were rather cold. Daytime highs struggled to break the freezing mark, and nights reached down into the mid-negative double digits. It certainly was unusually cold weather for December. By the 22nd of December, a special weather statement had been issued for Nova Scotia, warning of the potential of a potent winter storm developing Christmas Day.

On the morning of December 23rd, temperatures began to rise, and The Weather Network had finally agreed with the GFS, expecting rain as opposed to snow for Christmas Day. It began to snow a bit around lunchtime, but that turned to rain within half an hour, and temperatures kept on climbing. By evening, it had reached nearly 11 degrees, and the rain was pouring down in buckets. At the same time, heavy snow was falling in northern New Brunswick; had all the rain that fell here fallen as snow, it would have amounted to at least a foot of snow.

Figure 2. The 2-meter temperature anomaly at 2AM on December 24th, showing exceptional warmth over N.S.

It began to cool off somewhat Christmas Eve morning, but that was short-lived, for the sun came out by mid-morning. The winds were nearly calm, and temperatures reached 6oC by afternoon, as pleasant as you could possibly hope for. By this point, the GFS forecast model was indicating that there wouldn’t be much precipitation in Nova Scotia, but that the winds would be the big story. Just off the coast, the winds were expected to be sustained at 45kt, with speeds in excess of 50kt not out of the question. The weather remained warm as I was driving to church (Christmas Eve is the only time I ever go), but it had cooled off down to near freezing by the time the service was over at 5:20 PM.

Figure 3. The actual air temperature on December 24th around 2AM, showcasing temperatures in the double digits.

Christmas Eve itself was rather uneventful, with the usual supper, tree-lighting, and present-opening. By this time, the content in the special weather statement had changed from a winter storm to a windy storm, but the specifics of the wind were as of yet unknown; only “strong gusty winds” were cited. Heavy snow, ranging from 15-25 cm, was expected in most of New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island. Figure 4. Surface weather analysis of the Christmas Eve system around 2AM December 24rd. Note the barometric pressure and the maximum windspeeds over the open sea, for comparison with the next day’s system.

Christmas Day itself broke with a few ice pellets in light southeasterly winds around 7:15 AM. These ice pellets changed to freezing rain about an hour later; in fact, a freezing rain warning had already been issued shortly after midnight, and wind warnings for gusts of 80-100 km/h had been issued in the west of Nova Scotia. The Weather Network was predicting that gusts would reach 90-110 km/h in Cape Breton Island.

About an hour later, the ice pellets gave way to freezing rain. Due to this, my father was rather concerned that my older brother would have a hard time making it out here, as freezing rain tends to make roads slippery. However, my younger brother had driven back home from town, and said that the roads weren’t especially bad. While various family delays meant that my older brother was late getting going, he did head for my house at around 11:30 AM. While my older brother was driving out, I went out to check out the weather, around noon. The temperature had gone above freezing by that point, the rain had given way to light drizzle, and a strong wind from the south-east had come up. It wasn’t especially violent – maybe 40 gusting to 70 km/h at most – but it was still rather impressive down at the waterfront. The wind had created a small storm surge, maybe eight inches higher than normal, and you could watch the wind form waves on the water, as every time a gust came down the valley, a whole bunch of wavelets would form on the water in that location. Although Mill Cove is rather sheltered from the south-east, the wind still formed occasional white horses between Windy Point and Hotel Island, and just north of Hotel Island, the harbour was full of white horses. While certainly impressive, it was nothing exceptional – after all, storms of this intensity are pretty common throughout the winter.

When I went to finish my walk, I walked past my boat. Upon looking at it, I noticed that some ice pellets and meltwater had collected on the tarpaulin, which could prove problematic if they melted and then re-froze into a solid block of ice. So I went inside my boat, pushed all the ice pellets and meltwater off the tarp from inside, and tightened the tarp somewhat with shock-cords. This tightening would prove to be very useful later in the day, as I would soon find out.

When I went back in to check the weather forecast, the freezing rain warning had ended, but a wind warning had taken its place, warning of winds gusting from 80-100 km/h for virtually of Mainland Nova Scotia, but with gusts nearing 110 for exposed coastal regions. To make matters worse, these gusts were to arrive from the south-west and west-south-west, the two directions from which the property had the least protection, as wind from there has the whole run of the harbour (nearly two miles) to pick up speed, making for stormy conditions at home.

My older brother arrived shortly before 1 PM, and all of us ate lunch in the old house. After lunch, my younger brother and his girlfriend (who’d come at around 10:30 AM) stayed for about half an hour, as we opened presents, but then left to go and have dinner with her parents. Just when he was leaving came a massive downpour. It didn’t last long, but it did soak both him and his girlfriend just as they were getting into the car. Surprisingly, there was virtually no wind at this time. Was all this wind that was predicted by the forecast really going to come? Or was it all a hoax? All of us went back to opening presents for another hour and a half. In fact, this was only a break, the eye of the storm, if you will. The really wild weather was yet to come. Figure 5. The actual (2-meter) temperatures around 2PM on December 25th. After 90 minutes of present-opening, pretty much everyone was wishing for a break, especially since the sun was coming out. Most everyone went outside for a walk, and I did the same. After the walk, I went over to the stone house to check the GFS. It was predicting sustained winds of up to 50 knots just offshore, and a minimum central pressure of 983 mbar – indicative of a very strong storm. Of course, any report like that warrants verification, and I checked current conditions at Baccaro Point (on the south-western corner of N.S. – weather usually moves from west to east). Figure 6. The 2-meter temperature anomaly at 2PM on December 25th.

Upon checking the current conditions, I was somewhat alarmed. It reported sustained winds of 51 knots with gusts to 62 knots – that is nearly 112km/h, and anything over 50 knots is enough to get my attention. With that information, I went back over to the old house to tell my mother about the current conditions – this was around 4PM. Fearing for a power failure, the vegetables were started immediately (the meat was almost cooked by that point). I went back to the stone house, and played three games of table tennis with my older brother’s son, which I all won, although none of them were pushovers, and one went into overtime. As we played our games, the wind started howling outside the basement doors, which were facing west. Before going back to the old house to resume present opening, I went upstairs to my father’s office, and looked at the harbour. The entire harbour was full of white horses, and the waves were so tall that they were breaking right over the rocky island, which is not something that I see every day. Figure 7. The winds and barometric pressure around 2PM. The central pressure of the storm is 984 mbar at this time.

The present-opening ran into problems soon after it started, around 4:45 PM. My older brother’s son and daughter managed to successfully open their presents without incident. I was in the middle of opening one of my presents (the book called reactions) when the lights suddenly went out. They did not come back on, and it was at that point that I knew the power had failed. Luckily, my mother had taken my earlier advice and started the vegetables early, but without power we were in the dark. So I went to light all the candles on the table (there were lots of these on the table, for we often lit candles while eating supper on Christmas Day), leaving my present, Reactions by Theodore Gray, only half-unwrapped. I went upstairs to get another candle, and lit that too for more light. I walked down the driveway, and out along the local road to the secondary road to see whether I could see anything on the line. While walking on the road, I stayed well away from the southern side, so as to give myself more warning if a tree did fall. I couldn’t see any lights on the secondary road, or any fallen trees, so I went back inside. Since the food couldn’t be kept warm without power, supper was eaten right then and there at 5PM, as opposed to the original planned time of 6PM.

Supper that night consisted of ham, pineapple, sweet/sour sauce, mashed potatoes, and red cabbage. We considered ourselves lucky that the food had been prepared just in time, and thought about the many people who would be stuck with half-cooked turkeys, and eating cold food for Christmas Day. All the while the wind was howling outside. When we looked out just before supper, we noticed a huge, eighty-foot tall spruce tree had snapped in half, and its crown had fallen very close to our car. Had the car been parked only six feet to the left, it would have likely received a serious dent. Since we’d burned the candles for longer than usual, I went upstairs and got more candles to replace the ones on the table after supper.

After supper, I went outside to see what it was really like. I was just about to go for a walk, when I realized that there was a major problem; the tarpaulin on my boat, which I’d just tightened hours before, was starting to come loose. Already two grommets had torn right out of it. Concerned about the possibility of the entire tarpaulin flying away or getting ripped to pieces, I went and got every rope in the barn, and tied it down as tightly as possible, given the missing grommets. While this didn’t entirely stop the flapping, it did seem to dampen it considerably.

Once the tarpaulin was fastened, my older brother, his daughter, and myself went down to the waterfront (this was around 7PM) to see the waves – and let me tell you, it was wild. Mill Cove, usually so protected and serene, was full of white horses, and five-foot tall waves were rolling in one after another, which was hardly surprising, given that the winds were gusting in excess of 110 km/h. The wind was so powerful that it was difficult to stand; in fact, two things were no longer standing. The wooden crane I used to remove and install the mast from my sailboat was blown sideways, and a large, red motorboat which had been rolled onto its side had flipped upright. That motorboat was so heavy that it would take three strong men to roll it over, and yet the wind was able to do it without much effort at all. Even though spray was flying over the entire pier, nearly fifty feet long, at speeds to high that it would hurt your face if you got hit by it, my older brother’s sister insisted on standing at the very end of the pier. I shouted that “If you fall in, I’m not going to get you out!” as the chances of my being able to rescue anyone from those waves were near zero. Even though my older brother and myself stood back from the end, our pants ended up pretty wet. Figure 8. The winds around 8PM, roughly when I was standing at the wharf. Note the 50-knot winds right along the Eastern Shore.

After the three of us got inside, we decided to light the candles on the advent ring, and the Christmas tree, as we did every Christmas. There was only one problem; there wasn’t any power, so the regular Christmas music couldn’t be played. Various suggestions came up, including singing the Christmas songs ourselves without any accompaniment, but in the end I suggested playing music, not necessarily Christmas music, on the 78-rpm gramophone, as that was wound up and didn’t need electricity to work. The idea proved popular, and as the candles burned, various hits from the 30’s and 40’s were played, including “Sick, Sober and Sorry” “If You’ve Got the Money I’ve Got the Time” and some square dance music. Playing this music was very nostalgic, especially for my parents, with the slightly scratchy music, three-minute recordings, and having to wind up the gramophone every time the record was changed, along with the howling of the wind as background accompaniment. Although I commented that the machine was nearly 100 years old, it worked flawlessly, to which my older brother noted “I doubt that an iPod would still be working after 100 years.” Unlike in previous years, the candles on the tree were kept lit, so we could see our presents as we opened them, since there was no electricity. It is doubtful that we’d ever burned so many candles in any previous Christmas; in fact, we burned the candles so much, that it is doubtful that they’d make it to New Years without being replaced (a first for us).

During present opening, my older brother’s daughter had a bit of an adventure of her own. She needed to use the bathroom, and opted to go to the outhouse, since there was no water to flush the toilet. While in there she heard a huge crack. Understandably, she didn’t linger in the outhouse and hurried back as quickly as possible.

After the present opening, I put away the gramophone, and it was time for my older brother to leave. All of us bade him goodbye and a safe trip. I went outside at that time to check on the tarpaulin of my boat, and another grommet had torn loose. I tightened up the remaining ropes, as before, and the flapping was under control. However, when I was working there, I was noticing something that I’d never felt before. My boat was starting to shake on its trailer. I was quite used to shaking vehicles (the camper often shakes when it’s windy), so I didn’t think this would be anything important. Following the tarp check, I went out the driveway to check for fallen trees or branches. When I got to the end, I noticed a problem. Two large trees had fallen across the local road to the east of my driveway, blocking both lanes. I told my older brother (who was driving out) to stop, for he could go no further that way. He suggested going west, around the entire loop, but that didn’t work, for another tree had fallen, just to the west of the driveway. I notified my father, and he got the chainsaw and started cutting the trees to the east of the driveway by the light of my older brother’s car headlights. While he was cutting, a truck from the Department of Highways came by. They notified us that they were checking whether roads were passable or not, and they said that the coast was clear at least as far as the next major settlement, last time they drove by, although some branches had fallen on the main road, and there was a somewhat low powerline on the secondary road. My older brother finally headed off, but not without bringing a bucksaw, just in case a tree got in the way of his drive again.

With the evening’s logging over, I walked over to the stone house via the driveways – it was too dangerous to walk on the forest paths in this wind, as a tree could come falling at any moment – and walked past the camper. Right there I noticed a major problem. The tarp on the camper was starting to tear its grommets, and unlike the boat’s tarp, many grommets near the front had already gone, so it was going to be difficult to secure it properly. The weather forecast suggested that the wind would start to die down in another two hours and shift to west, so I figured that the camper’s tarp wouldn’t get too severely damaged. I would later realize that this wasn’t exactly going to be the case.

At the end of the day, my father and I went inside and played a game of chess, and went to bed. I read my new Reactions book by headlamp-light until around 10 P.M. The wind was still howling as I went to sleep, and I was wondering to myself “will everything be alright?” I wasn’t thinking about the houses, but whether the boat and camper would be fine. The next morning broke clear, and – to my surprise – there was nearly no wind. I got up at around 7:15 AM, and ate breakfast. It wasn’t possible to eat my usual breakfast of reheated leftovers, as the microwave to reheat food wasn’t working, due to no power, so I got some bread from the old house, and ate that with some tinned mackerel. It was on my way over that I found out what had scared my older brother’s daughter so much in the outhouse. A large birch tree had fallen just behind the outhouse, and had luckily fallen onto the lawn. The path between the two houses was mostly clear, however, aside from a small fallen birch. I also found a pleasant surprise; the tarpaulin on my boat did not break up. An even bigger surprise occurred when looking at the boat’s trailer. The trailer, with the boat on it, had been blown sideways nearly eight inches, and that was no mean feat. A Tanzer 22 weighs around 3500 pounds, and the trailer added another 600 at least. Since the trailer was resting on wooden blocks, with a coefficient of friction of around 0.35, the wind must’ve pushed with at least 1400 pounds of force to move the boat. It blew my mind when I first saw it.

After breakfast, I set out to put back the rubber skirting placed around the basement of the old house to keep cold drafts out, as some of that had blown away on the north and south sides in the night’s winds. While I was doing that, my younger brother came out, and he told us he still had power. He got out his chainsaw, and the two of us cut up the trees on the local road, skidding them to my mother’s woodshed using his car. It was there that we found out that the trees were not at all rotten, and beautifully straight, and might well make good planks for repairing the jolly boat, solving my younger brother’s plank supply problem.

Our next target was the large spruce tree that had fallen onto the lawn, as well as the large birch that had fallen behind the outhouse. My father was already at work on those when my younger brother came and started cutting the trees. The two of them together finished cutting, while I stacked up the logs and branches. There would be no shortage of wood for this year’s bonfire.

Following that cut, my younger brother and I walked all around our property’s hiking trails, to check for downed trees. As before, he cut the trees, and I stacked the logs up beside the path. This took us right until lunchtime, for many trees had blocked the path. Some of them had been uprooted, while other healthy spruces, nearly a foot thick, had been snapped straight in two. The lunch itself consisted of rolls and pizza reheated in the camping stove, fuelled by methanol.

Refuelled by that lunch, the two of us resumed clearing the path. By the time all was said and done there, at least a dozen sizeable logstacks had been created, solving my mother’s wood shortage for cutting next spring. Next, we turned our attention to the fallen crane, and my younger brother cut that into the water, while I drove it ashore. Later that afternoon, I would pick up the wood and put it on the pier when the tide went down.

When the two of us looked at the gazebo next to the pier, something struck us. One of the three front windows had blown right in, falling onto a chair, but even more surprisingly, it hadn’t broken. We put the window back where it came from, and examined the door, which had blown open, despite being held by a heavy rock. The window in the door also showed some damage in the form of screws holding the window torn right out of the wood, likely caused by the pressure created inside the gazebo prior to the door opening. Surprisingly, the glass didn’t break there either, and I marked those screws for later replacing.

With the window-resetting done, the next priority was to deal with the tarpaulins. In order to keep the tarpaulin from blowing off my boat in another big windstorm, I put two nets over the part of the tarpaulin located over the cockpit. While I was doing that, I noticed that one of the puckboard arches used to hold the tarpaulin up had broken its rope in the wind, and went to fix that. Since most of the grommets in my tarpaulin were fine, I decided to leave those until spring.

Tarpaulin repairs continued, though, with the tarpaulin from the camper. Nearly half the grommets on that one had been ripped out in the wind, so my mother and I took it inside and replaced every grommet that had been torn out. Just when we were finishing that, around 3:30 PM, the electricity came back on, after having been off for 22.5 hours.

The last post-storm repair was to put the repaired camper tarp back on with my father, which didn’t take long, although wood hauling from the many fallen trees would continue for a number of days on and off.

What do you think about my Christmas/Boxing Day adventure? Leave your comments below!